Prediction of Earthquake Ground Motions Using Large-Scale Numerical Simulations
SESSION: Big Science, Big Data II
EVENT TYPE: Masterworks
TIME: 2:15PM - 3:00PM
SESSION CHAIR: Patricia Kovatch
ABSTRACT: Realistic earthquake simulations can now predict strong ground motions from the largest anticipated fault ruptures. Olsen et al. (this meeting) have simulated a M8 “wall-to-wall” earthquake on southern San Andreas fault up to 2-Hz, sustaining 220 teraflops for 24 hours on 223K cores of NCCS Jaguar. Large simulation ensembles (~10^6) have been combined with probabilistic rupture forecasts to create CyberShake, a physics-based hazard model for Southern California. In the highly-populated sedimentary basins, CyberShake predicts long-period shaking intensities substantially higher than empirical models, primarily due to the strong coupling between rupture directivity and basin excitation. Simulations are improving operational earthquake forecasting, which provides short-term earthquake probabilities using seismic triggering models, and earthquake early warning, which attempts to predict imminent shaking during an event. These applications offer new and urgent computational challenges, including requirements for robust, on-demand supercomputing and rapid access to very large data sets.
Patricia Kovatch (Chair) - University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Tom Jordan - Southern California Earthquake Center